UPSET WATCH · THE LEAST LIKELY WINS ON RECORD
Cricket's biggest upsets, by the numbers
Every international and T20 league match since 2004, replayed in order. Before each one, the Oracle priced it from what was known that day. These are the wins it thought were least likely.
PRE-MATCH PROBABILITY OF THE SIDE THAT WON · CRICSHEET ARCHIVE + LIVE RESULTS
Recent shocks
The least likely wins of the last four months.
T20I · 26 JUN 2026
3.2%Ireland beat India
by 34 runs · Civil Service Cricket Club · 1 in 31 shot · ratings 1260 v 1731
T20I · 28 JUN 2026
4.7%Ireland beat India
by 1 run · Civil Service Cricket Club · 1 in 21 shot · ratings 1276 v 1715
TEST · 13 AUG 2026
8.9%Bangladesh beat Australia
by 9 wickets · Marrara Stadium · 1 in 11 shot · ratings 1314 v 1760
T20I · 9 OCT 2026
10.1%West Indies beat India
by 6 wickets · 1 in 10 shot · ratings 1420 v 1683
T20I · 27 JUN 2026
11.0%Bulgaria Women beat Serbia Women
by 7 runs · Vassil Levski National Sports Academy · 1 in 9 shot · ratings 776 v 988
ODI · 3 OCT 2026
14.6%West Indies beat India
by 5 wickets · Maharaja Yadavindra Singh International Cricket Stadium · 1 in 7 shot · ratings 1383 v 1730
The 25 least likely wins on record
Men's and women's, every format.
#1 · T20I · 26 JUN 2026
3.2%Ireland beat India
by 34 runs · Civil Service Cricket Club · 1 in 31 shot · ratings 1260 v 1731
#2 · ODI · 17 OCT 2023
3.4%Netherlands beat South Africa
by 38 runs · Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association Stadium · 1 in 29 shot · ratings 1042 v 1695
#3 · T20I · 2 SEPT 2023
4.1%Sri Lanka Women beat England Women
by 8 wickets · County Ground · 1 in 24 shot · ratings 1364 v 1737
#4 · T20I · 20 JUN 2015
4.5%Scotland beat Ireland
by 6 wickets · Bready Cricket Club · 1 in 22 shot · ratings 976 v 1415
#5 · T20I · 28 JUN 2026
4.7%Ireland beat India
by 1 run · Civil Service Cricket Club · 1 in 21 shot · ratings 1276 v 1715
#6 · T20I · 19 AUG 2023
4.8%United Arab Emirates beat New Zealand
by 7 wickets · Dubai International Cricket Stadium · 1 in 21 shot · ratings 1109 v 1551
#7 · T20I · 30 JUL 2021
5.0%Netherlands Women beat Ireland Women
by 7 wickets · The Village · 1 in 20 shot · ratings 946 v 1290
#8 · T20I · 6 NOV 2022
5.3%Netherlands beat South Africa
by 13 runs · Adelaide Oval · 1 in 19 shot · ratings 1146 v 1583
#9 · T20I · 15 SEPT 2024
5.4%Ireland Women beat England Women
by 5 wickets · Castle Avenue · 1 in 18 shot · ratings 1355 v 1755
#10 · T20I · 6 JUL 2024
5.5%Zimbabwe beat India
by 13 runs · Harare Sports Club · 1 in 18 shot · ratings 1272 v 1692
#11 · T20I · 23 APR 2021
5.7%Zimbabwe beat Pakistan
by 19 runs · Harare Sports Club · 1 in 18 shot · ratings 1256 v 1588
#12 · ODI · 4 AUG 2020
5.9%Ireland beat England
by 7 wickets · The Rose Bowl · 1 in 17 shot · ratings 1222 v 1625
#13 · ODI · 3 SEPT 2022
6.0%Zimbabwe beat Australia
by 3 wickets · Riverway Stadium · 1 in 17 shot · ratings 1119 v 1658
#14 · T20I · 2 OCT 2023
6.5%West Indies Women beat Australia Women
by 7 wickets · North Sydney Oval · 1 in 15 shot · ratings 1438 v 1781
#15 · T20I · 21 MAR 2014
6.8%Netherlands beat Ireland
by 6 wickets · Sylhet Stadium · 1 in 15 shot · ratings 1058 v 1427
#16 · ODI · 18 JUN 2005
7.2%Bangladesh beat Australia
by 5 wickets · Sophia Gardens · 1 in 14 shot · ratings 1227 v 1729
#17 · T20I · 6 SEPT 2023
7.2%Sri Lanka Women beat England Women
by 7 wickets · County Ground · 1 in 14 shot · ratings 1377 v 1723
#18 · ODI · 18 JAN 2022
7.4%Zimbabwe beat Sri Lanka
by 22 runs · Pallekele International Cricket Stadium · 1 in 13 shot · ratings 1093 v 1447
#19 · ODI · 13 JUL 2021
7.8%Ireland beat South Africa
by 43 runs · The Village · 1 in 13 shot · ratings 1213 v 1698
#20 · T20I · 26 OCT 2022
8.1%Ireland beat England
by 5 runs · Melbourne Cricket Ground · 1 in 12 shot · ratings 1221 v 1593
#21 · T20I · 5 APR 2026
8.3%Greece Women beat Cyprus Women
by 8 wickets · Happy Valley Ground 2 · 1 in 12 shot · ratings 896 v 1128
#22 · ODI · 10 JUL 2010
8.4%Bangladesh beat England
by 5 runs · County Ground · 1 in 12 shot · ratings 1236 v 1563
#23 · T20I · 27 OCT 2022
8.5%Zimbabwe beat Pakistan
by 1 run · Perth Stadium · 1 in 12 shot · ratings 1267 v 1566
#24 · T20I · 12 JUL 2023
8.5%Sri Lanka Women beat New Zealand Women
by 10 wickets · P Sara Oval · 1 in 12 shot · ratings 1352 v 1614
#25 · T20I · 20 APR 2022
8.5%Namibia Women beat Zimbabwe Women
by 7 wickets · Centre for Cricket Development Ground · 1 in 12 shot · ratings 1143 v 1465
Test upsets
#1 · TEST · 25 JAN 2024
8.9%West Indies beat Australia
by 8 runs · Brisbane Cricket Ground · 1 in 11 shot · ratings 1396 v 1742
#2 · TEST · 13 AUG 2026
8.9%Bangladesh beat Australia
by 9 wickets · Marrara Stadium · 1 in 11 shot · ratings 1314 v 1760
#3 · TEST · 15 MAR 2017
12.1%Bangladesh beat Sri Lanka
by 4 wickets · P Sara Oval · 1 in 8 shot · ratings 1240 v 1516
#4 · TEST · 27 AUG 2017
12.1%Bangladesh beat Australia
by 20 runs · Shere Bangla National Stadium · 1 in 8 shot · ratings 1260 v 1635
#5 · TEST · 21 AUG 2024
12.4%Bangladesh beat Pakistan
by 10 wickets · Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · 1 in 8 shot · ratings 1250 v 1518
#6 · TEST · 1 JAN 2022
12.6%Bangladesh beat New Zealand
by 8 wickets · Bay Oval · 1 in 8 shot · ratings 1259 v 1624
#7 · TEST · 30 OCT 2016
13.7%West Indies beat Pakistan
by 5 wickets · Sharjah Cricket Stadium · 1 in 7 shot · ratings 1371 v 1617
#8 · TEST · 9 DEC 2011
14.5%New Zealand beat Australia
by 7 runs · Bellerive Oval · 1 in 7 shot · ratings 1408 v 1638
Men's ODI upsets
#1 · ODI · 17 OCT 2023
3.4%Netherlands beat South Africa
by 38 runs · Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association Stadium · 1 in 29 shot · ratings 1042 v 1695
#2 · ODI · 4 AUG 2020
5.9%Ireland beat England
by 7 wickets · The Rose Bowl · 1 in 17 shot · ratings 1222 v 1625
#3 · ODI · 3 SEPT 2022
6.0%Zimbabwe beat Australia
by 3 wickets · Riverway Stadium · 1 in 17 shot · ratings 1119 v 1658
#4 · ODI · 18 JUN 2005
7.2%Bangladesh beat Australia
by 5 wickets · Sophia Gardens · 1 in 14 shot · ratings 1227 v 1729
#5 · ODI · 18 JAN 2022
7.4%Zimbabwe beat Sri Lanka
by 22 runs · Pallekele International Cricket Stadium · 1 in 13 shot · ratings 1093 v 1447
#6 · ODI · 13 JUL 2021
7.8%Ireland beat South Africa
by 43 runs · The Village · 1 in 13 shot · ratings 1213 v 1698
#7 · ODI · 10 JUL 2010
8.4%Bangladesh beat England
by 5 runs · County Ground · 1 in 12 shot · ratings 1236 v 1563
#8 · ODI · 7 OCT 2024
8.8%Ireland beat South Africa
by 69 runs · Zayed Cricket Stadium · 1 in 11 shot · ratings 1230 v 1687
Men's T20I upsets
#1 · T20I · 26 JUN 2026
3.2%Ireland beat India
by 34 runs · Civil Service Cricket Club · 1 in 31 shot · ratings 1260 v 1731
#2 · T20I · 20 JUN 2015
4.5%Scotland beat Ireland
by 6 wickets · Bready Cricket Club · 1 in 22 shot · ratings 976 v 1415
#3 · T20I · 28 JUN 2026
4.7%Ireland beat India
by 1 run · Civil Service Cricket Club · 1 in 21 shot · ratings 1276 v 1715
#4 · T20I · 19 AUG 2023
4.8%United Arab Emirates beat New Zealand
by 7 wickets · Dubai International Cricket Stadium · 1 in 21 shot · ratings 1109 v 1551
#5 · T20I · 6 NOV 2022
5.3%Netherlands beat South Africa
by 13 runs · Adelaide Oval · 1 in 19 shot · ratings 1146 v 1583
#6 · T20I · 6 JUL 2024
5.5%Zimbabwe beat India
by 13 runs · Harare Sports Club · 1 in 18 shot · ratings 1272 v 1692
#7 · T20I · 23 APR 2021
5.7%Zimbabwe beat Pakistan
by 19 runs · Harare Sports Club · 1 in 18 shot · ratings 1256 v 1588
#8 · T20I · 21 MAR 2014
6.8%Netherlands beat Ireland
by 6 wickets · Sylhet Stadium · 1 in 15 shot · ratings 1058 v 1427
Women's cricket upsets
#1 · T20I · 2 SEPT 2023
4.1%Sri Lanka Women beat England Women
by 8 wickets · County Ground · 1 in 24 shot · ratings 1364 v 1737
#2 · T20I · 30 JUL 2021
5.0%Netherlands Women beat Ireland Women
by 7 wickets · The Village · 1 in 20 shot · ratings 946 v 1290
#3 · T20I · 15 SEPT 2024
5.4%Ireland Women beat England Women
by 5 wickets · Castle Avenue · 1 in 18 shot · ratings 1355 v 1755
#4 · T20I · 2 OCT 2023
6.5%West Indies Women beat Australia Women
by 7 wickets · North Sydney Oval · 1 in 15 shot · ratings 1438 v 1781
#5 · T20I · 6 SEPT 2023
7.2%Sri Lanka Women beat England Women
by 7 wickets · County Ground · 1 in 14 shot · ratings 1377 v 1723
#6 · T20I · 5 APR 2026
8.3%Greece Women beat Cyprus Women
by 8 wickets · Happy Valley Ground 2 · 1 in 12 shot · ratings 896 v 1128
#7 · T20I · 12 JUL 2023
8.5%Sri Lanka Women beat New Zealand Women
by 10 wickets · P Sara Oval · 1 in 12 shot · ratings 1352 v 1614
#8 · T20I · 20 APR 2022
8.5%Namibia Women beat Zimbabwe Women
by 7 wickets · Centre for Cricket Development Ground · 1 in 12 shot · ratings 1143 v 1465
T20 league upsets
IPL, BBL, PSL, CPL, SA20, The Hundred and more.
#1 · BLAST · 21 MAY 2016
28.0%Derbyshire beat Lancashire
by 9 wickets · Old Trafford · 1 in 4 shot · ratings 1368 v 1610
#2 · BLAST · 22 JUN 2023
28.6%Middlesex beat Surrey
by 7 wickets · Kennington Oval · 1 in 3 shot · ratings 1356 v 1608
#3 · BBL · 1 JAN 2015
29.0%Sydney Thunder beat Perth Scorchers
by 20 runs · Western Australia Cricket Association Ground · 1 in 3 shot · ratings 1362 v 1590
#4 · BLAST · 29 MAY 2015
29.9%Derbyshire beat Lancashire
by 5 wickets · County Ground · 1 in 3 shot · ratings 1360 v 1599
#5 · BLAST · 8 JUL 2026
30.3%Middlesex beat Hampshire
by 5 wickets · The Rose Bowl · 1 in 3 shot · ratings 1343 v 1581
#6 · BLAST · 29 MAY 2026
31.3%Glamorgan beat Somerset
by 7 wickets · Sophia Gardens · 1 in 3 shot · ratings 1441 v 1658
#7 · CPL · 7 SEPT 2025
31.5%St Kitts and Nevis Patriots beat Guyana Amazon Warriors
by 5 runs · Providence Stadium · 1 in 3 shot · ratings 1382 v 1609
#8 · BLAST · 4 JUN 2026
31.6%Glamorgan beat Somerset
by 4 wickets · The Cooper Associates County Ground · 1 in 3 shot · ratings 1451 v 1648
Upset questions
What is the biggest upset in cricket history?
By pre-match win probability, Ireland beating India on 26 Jun 2026 (T20I): the CricMind Oracle gave them 3.2% — about 1 in 31.
How are cricket upsets ranked here?
Every match in the ball-by-ball archive (Cricsheet, 2004 onwards) is replayed in date order. Before each match, the Oracle prices it from team ratings, home advantage, form and head-to-head as they stood that day — never using the result — then we rank wins by how unlikely they were.
What was the biggest ODI World Cup upset?
In ODIs the least likely win on record is Netherlands over South Africa on 17 Oct 2023 at 3.4%.
Archive: Cricsheet ball-by-ball (Afghanistan matches are not published there). Probabilities use the current Oracle model on ratings as they stood before each match. How calibrated is the Oracle?