Who will win the 2027 World Cup?
The whole tournament — qualifiers, groups, Super 7, knockouts — played 20,000 times by the same model that locks our match calls. South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia host it from 2 October to 21 November 2027.
Title odds
Chance of lifting the trophy on 21 November 2027. South Africa's edge is home advantage — the model's home factor for ODIs, applied wherever they play.
Stage by stage
Probability of reaching each stage. Qualifiers' first column is their chance of making the World Cup at all.
| TEAM | RATING | WORLD CUP | SUPER 7 | SEMI | FINAL | WIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South AfricaGRP B | 1604 | 100% | 94% | 84% | 56% | 35% |
| IndiaGRP A | 1714 | 100% | 96% | 83% | 52% | 29% |
| New ZealandGRP B | 1637 | 100% | 83% | 60% | 29% | 14% |
| AustraliaGRP A | 1594 | 100% | 85% | 53% | 22% | 9% |
| EnglandGRP B | 1584 | 100% | 73% | 42% | 17% | 7% |
| PakistanGRP A | 1524 | 100% | 72% | 31% | 10% | 3% |
| Sri LankaGRP B | 1486 | 100% | 50% | 17% | 5% | 1% |
| AfghanistanGRP A | 1457 est. | 100% | 59% | 16% | 4% | 1% |
| BangladeshGRP B | 1427 | 100% | 36% | 8% | 2% | <1% |
| West IndiesQUAL | 1399 | 88% | 28% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| IrelandQUAL | 1258 | 54% | 7% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ZimbabweGRP A | 1147 | 100% | 16% | <1% | <1% | — |
| ScotlandQUAL | 1155 | 24% | 1% | <1% | — | — |
| United States of AmericaQUAL | 1098 | 13% | <1% | — | — | — |
| NetherlandsQUAL | 1071 | 9% | <1% | — | — | — |
| NamibiaPLAY-OFF | 1005 | 5% | <1% | — | — | — |
| NepalPLAY-OFF | 1033 | 5% | <1% | — | — | — |
| OmanQUAL | 955 | 2% | <1% | — | — | — |
The groups
Drawn on 1 October 2026. One place in each group goes to a qualifier — the Qualifier winner straight in, the Super Series winner after a play-in in Windhoek. Probabilities are each side's chance of reaching the Super 7.
Road to the World Cup — four places left
West Indies, Ireland, Netherlands, Scotland, USA and Oman are in the Qualifier (22 Feb – 23 Mar 2027); four more join from December's Qualifier Play-off. Chance of reaching the World Cup:
How the forecast works
- Every simulated match is priced by the same model that locks our match calls: Oracle ODI rating, home advantage, recent form and head-to-head.
- Home advantage: South Africa in every stage, Zimbabwe in the group stage, Namibia in the Super Series in Windhoek.
- Not yet published by the ICC, so modelled openly: both qualifying events as round robins, and which group each qualifier joins (random in each simulation). Ties on points are split at random — we don't simulate net run rate.
- Afghanistan's matches aren't in our ball-by-ball source, so their rating is set between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, the sides they qualified between. Sides with no ODI record start just below the weakest rated side.
- Real results are pinned in as each qualifying event finishes; between events the odds move with the ratings. How well calibrated is the Oracle?
World Cup 2027 questions
Who is the favourite to win the 2027 Cricket World Cup?
South Africa (35%), ahead of India (29%) and New Zealand (14%), across 20,000 simulations of the tournament by the CricMind Oracle.
Where and when is the 2027 World Cup?
South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia host it from 2 October to 21 November 2027, with the final in Johannesburg on 21 November (reserve day 22 November).
How does the 2027 World Cup format work?
Fourteen teams. Three qualifiers play a Super Series in Windhoek for the last group place; twelve teams play two groups of six; the top three in each group plus the best fourth-placed side form a Super 7 (no points carried over); the top four play semi-finals (1st v 4th, 2nd v 3rd) and the final.
Have West Indies qualified for the 2027 World Cup?
Not yet. West Indies missed the top eight of the ODI rankings at the 30 September 2026 cut-off and must come through the Qualifier in February–March 2027. The Oracle gives them a 88% chance of reaching the World Cup.
Which teams have already qualified?
South Africa and Zimbabwe as hosts, plus India, New Zealand, Pakistan, Australia, England, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and Bangladesh on ODI rankings. Namibia, a co-host but not a Full Member, must qualify.
How is this forecast made?
Every simulated match is priced by the same model that locks CricMind match predictions — Oracle ratings, home advantage, form and head-to-head — and the whole tournament, qualifiers included, is played 20,000 times. It updates every six hours as results move the ratings.
Format and qualification: ICC fixture announcement, October 2026. Forecast for entertainment and analysis only — not for betting. All forecasts →